Modellierung der Produktivitätsausfallkosten als Folge des Rauchens in Deutschland für das Jahr 2005

Purpose: The aim of this study was to estimate disease-related productivity costs attributable to smoking in the year 2005 in Germany. Methods: The calculation was based on the updated relative smoking-related disease risk found in the US Cancer Prevention Study II combined with data on smoking prevalence for Germany. With this, smoking-attributable cases resulting in premature mortality, invalidity, and temporal disability to work could be estimated. Neoplasms, diseases of the circulatory and the respiratory systems as well as health problems in children younger than one year were considered in the analysis. The human capital approach was applied to calculate years of potential work loss and productivity costs as a result of smoking. Various sensitivity analyses were conducted to test for robustness of the underlying model. Results: Based on the assumptions within the model, 107,389 deaths, 14,112 invalidity cases, and 1.19 million cases of temporary disability to work were found to be due to smoking in 2005 in Germany, respectively. As a result, productivity costs of 9.6 billion were caused by smoking. Conclusions: The model showed that smoking has a high financial effect. Even so, further analyses are necessary to estimate an overall impact of smoking on the German society.